A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
